Energy Bangla

Saleque Sufi:
Only a few days back Petrobangla Chairman and Advisor of Ruling party Bangladesh Awami League talked about milestone achievements in Gas Sector over the last 5 years. He gave an extensive list of achievements .But despite of his fairy tale success (?),the persistent gas deficit in national gas grid despite of adding over 600MMCFD new gas to national gas grid have started panicking Bangladesh energy sector .The reality is despite of significant increase in gas production the gas deficit of over 500MMCFD remains the pain in the neck . Chittagong region continues to suffer from chronic gas crisis with no immediate possibility of remedying the situation,Khustia, Jessore and Khulna have no chance of getting pipe line supply of gas soon,and gas crisis will further deepen in greater Dhaka Gas Franchise. Panic stricken Petrobangla has advised Gas/ Liquid Fuel using peaking power plant to rely exclusively on gas .To manage gas crisis Government was compelled to suspend gas supply to 5 out of seven Urea Fertilizer plants for almost 6 months during irrigation season and summer. Now gas supply to 4 of the 5 Urea Fertilizer plants have resumed .Gas demand of PDB now is now 1340MMCFD, Petrobangla supplied 980 MMCFD on 11th September. Gas demand for Urea Fertilizer production is 280 MMCFD; Petrobangla supplied only 170 MMCFD .Still Gas system pressure has alarmingly gone down all over gas franchise. What has gone wrong? We know that there is no magic solution. But where the additional 500MMCFD + new gas gone? Has anyone done any exercise what has gone wrong? Who are being benefited from indiscipline in gas system management?
A democratic government coming to power with massive mandate on its declared vision of making changes in energy portfolio announced mega plans in power and gas sector. Unfortunately Government thoroughly politicized Gas Sector management bringing in a party loyal academician as Chairman Petrobangla. A controversial beauracrat is advisor to PM for Energy affairs and PM herself is in charge of Energy Ministry. Some senior Gas Sector Officials having years of proven track records were removed and some party loyals were entrusted with the responsibilities of Managing Gas sector affairs. Rumor goes that PM’s Energy Advisor and Ruling Party advisor in Petrobangla never see eye to eye in any matter. This personality clash has created impasse in many matters in Gas Sector.
Government claims of adding over 500MMCFD new gas to national grid. Where this gas has gone? The situation requires deep analysis as gas supply to all categories of consumers remained suspended for most of the last 5 years. Where the new addition is gone? In 2009 when present government took over the effective national production was 1750MMCFD the deficit was about 500MMCFD now in end 2013 the production is about 2300 MMCFD still according to Petrobangla Director [Operation] the deficit is 500MMCFD. In present situation the deficit alone in Chittagong region is over 200MMCFD and in Titas Franchise area about 200MMCFD. PDB claims that about 942 MW available capacities from 11 gas based power plants cannot be utilized for gas supply crisis. Has not Petrobangla companies totally failed in managing gas system demand? Where from the additional demand has been created? PDB claims that its gas demand is over 1100 MMCFD per day and during Ramadan it was supplied about 950 -1000MW keeping gas supply to 5 out of 7 Urea Fertilizer plants suspended. We know about gas rationing in CNG fuelling stations all over the country and holiday staggering at industrial hubs. We know about chronic gas crisis in the Chittagong area. During my last Dhaka Visit President Chittagong Chamber informed about gas famine in Chittagong made many industrial entrepreauner almost bankrupt. We wonder how the gas demand in Titas Franchise area has phenomenally increased. It is only possible through theft and pilferage by connected consumers and massive illegal connections through connivance with gas sector officials.
Where are the Failures?
• Government failed to undertake required exploration and development of gas resources in onshore gas frontiers. Given the prevailing and emerging crisis at least a dozen exploration rigs should have been working over the last 5 years. It was only BAPEX with its very limited capacity kept exploring and developing onshore gas resources. Some very marginal gas fields were discovered and some discovered resources developed. But compared to demand these are trickle in the ocean. Government miserably failed in its fast track gas production enhancement. Major gas Field Titas Leakage situation not remedied in over 7 years now. Even the works of Russian Giant GAZPROM suffers from poor co-ordination. Gas production from Petrobangla Companies owned Gas fields are not expected to increase significantly. Shangu Gas field production has depleted in about 15 years.
• Almost 95% of gas production increase came from Chevron operated Gas Fields in the North Eastern parts of Bangladesh. Bibiyana and Jalalabad are producing almost at its maximum capacity .Many disputes that these are over producing. If it is true there may be signs of rapid depletion soon.
• Petrobangla /GTCL have failed to complete essential Gas Transmission pipeline infrastructure development projects on time. Some multimillion dollar projects initiated without assessing the gas supply capacity over the life of the project will soon become a pain in the neck for GTCL. The essential Gas Compressor Project at Ashuganj started in 2004 has not seen light at the end of the tunnel in over 9 years .It will not serve its purpose in the present scenario without having downstream capacity from Ashuganj to Chittagong and addional gas at upstream.There is no possibility of capacity utilization of Bibiyana -Dhanua pipeline .If Bibiyana is made to produce @ 1500MMCFD it will be depleted fast.
• Petrobangla cannot supply any gas beyond Padma River to Khustia, Jessore and Khulna as the critical Padma River crossing remains outstanding over two years. Bakhrabad –Shiddhirganj Loop Line cannot be commissioned before April 2014 as few critical River Crossing and 2KM section in low lying area remains outstanding. Commissioning of the pipeline will further reduce gas supply to Chittagong.
• GTCL could not refurbish it SCADA system in 7 years since 2006 and could not clean its transmission pipelines of accumulated liquid and sludge by on-stream pigging.. This cause low pressure situation over entire transmission system. Entire GTCL management sitting in Dhaka main office waste time in ridiculous but true writing and editing correspondences.
• There is serious crisis of competent Manpower in Petrobangla and its companies. Two Directors [Operations] of Petrobangla were removed who either were not doing their job properly or managed extension with fraudulent documents. Another very experienced Director having extensive proven track record was also removed who could make immense contribution. Some companies have less than competent Managing Directors and Senior Officials. Consequently projects implementation of gas sector and efficiency of operations greatly suffer.
The national election is due by Next January. Present Government could earn lot of credit if it could engage competent gas sector professionals in Senior Petrobangla and Petrobangla companies without trying to politicize the management. Petrobangla company’s failures have prolonged energy crisis. Government is leaving behind a crisis prone messy gas sector which makes take several years to remedy. Crisis now exists at all level of gas value chain. We believe present government will do credible soul searching and other aspirant political front will learn lessons from messy gas sector.PM herself as Energy Minister, PMAdvisor, State Minster Energy Chairman Parliamentary Standing Committee on Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Energy Secretary immediate past and Present and Petrobangla Chairman owe explanation to the nation.