Honorable Prime Minister recently disclosed her government’s power sector mega plan to generate 60,000MW electricity by 2041. The plan revealed while inaugurating some development projects including power plants through video conference on February 25, 2016. In the video conference, Prime Minister detailed the expected power generation to be 24,000MW in 2021; 40,000MW in 2031 and 60,000MW in 2041. In the revised plan the government didn’t clarify the fuel base of the power to be produced and also how the target will be achieved. The detailed Power Sector MasterPlan (PSMP)-2010, they wanted to generate 40,000MW power by the year 2030 and half of which will come from coal with significant amount (11,000MW) to be generated from local coal.
In line with implementation of the PSMP-2010, the government has undertaken 24 coal-fired power plants propjets including public, private, joint venture and commercial initiatives, having electricity generation capacity of 21,785 MW in the country, as quoted in a published news in ‘The Independent’ on march 22, 2016. Keeping in mind the easy transportation of the imported coal from loading/unloading facilities to the power plants, the government has selected majority of the base-load coal-fired power plants along the southern coastal region including Paira and Maheshkhali.
The government is trying hard to source coal from the prospective coal-exporting countries mainly from Indonesia, China, India and Australia. But both China and India import coal parallel to their domestic exploitation to meet their electricity demands. In a recent news on March 07, 2016 by NDTV Profit it was mentioned that the Indian coal ministry is planning to allot more than 10 coalmines to PSUs (coal-bearing states, non coal-bearing states including Haryana and Panjab) in the financial year 2015-16 (first time ever in over 40 years, the government is throwing open the coal sector for commercial mining, which at present is being undertaken by the central PSU coal India) with the target of doubling coal production to 1500 million tonnes by 2020. This decision for commercial mining will enhance domestic production of coal to meet growing demand of the economy, potentially cutting down imports. It is therefore very much unlikely that Bangladesh can source coal either from India or China. The only potential destination would be either Australia or Indonesia. But Bangladesh is yet to ensure guaranteed supply of coal for more than five years from any of these countries.
It is more like obtaining a boon/blessing from the God of Fortune that global price of fuel oil fell down drastically that reduced oil-based power generation cost in the country. But the price would remain low, as world’s eminent economists predicts, for a maximum of three years. So, Bangladesh should take advantage of this opportunity ensure a sustainable fuel mix for its power generation.
Bangladesh started well with the PSMP-2010 in terms of attaining sustainable diversification of energy for the country’s power generation considering the reality of fast depleting gas, which accounts for 80 percent of the electricity generation. But without going towards extracting the local coal which is more realistic, affordable, cheap, manageable within own control and ready to start with (at least one: the Phulbari coalmine, Feasibility Study and Scheme of Development of which is waiting for government approval since 2005), the government is heading towards import-based coal, which is still a far cry. It is worth mentioning, it takes at least three to five years to get first coal after commencement of mining operation of an open pit coalmine. Gradually and subsequently the Northern Part of Barapukuria, Dighipara and Khalaspir coalmines can be developed through appropriate measures parallel to capital arrangement for the coal import.
Another point we must focus on the government is trying hard and soul to attract foreign investment in coal-based energy and power sectors. Often, the government organized road-shows spending crores of taka. In reality, the investors for establishing coal-fired power plants would only start construction works when they get assurance of available supply of energy with one simple reason, they just don’t want to keep the power plants sitting idle investing billions of dollars. It is evident from the agreements of 24 coal-fired power plants that signed during last six/seven years, whereno such progress is envisagedas of now in any of the coal-fired power plants, and the Prime Minister also expressed dissatisfaction in this regard in the parliament recently. As a matter of fact, end of the day it is business, and we all have to acknowledge it. We already wasted too much time in implementing energy projects for coal sector development. Energy is the key to industrial development. If we want to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) in time, we cannot afford any further delay.
– The writer is a geologist